I thought I would do something a bit different this week (mainly because I have moved house and getting an internet connection has been extremely difficult). But when there’s a will there’s a way and I am now finally able to bring a preview for tomorrow’s race. As you know, we have only one race left and the title race is still very much open. Instead of previewing the race in Abu Dhabi, say Thursday, I have decided to do it on the eve of the race. And yes, that means I will be able to reflect on today’s qualifying and the implications it will have not only on the final Grand Prix of the year, but the closest and most thrilling title battle possibly in history.
Advantage Alonso. That is the most important result of qualifying. Yes Vettel claimed another pole position and yes Hamilton qualified alongside him to illustrate he is still very much a contender. But Alonso’s storming final lap will see him line up third and that is the most significant factor for tomorrow’s race. The Spaniard is crucially ahead of Mark Webber, who qualified a rather disappointing fifth. If the status quo were to remain, Alonso would be World Champion for a third time, and the youngest three-time winner ever. As Alonso’s nearest challenger, it is a massive blow for the Australian. He must hope to either pass his rivals in front of him or they suffer some degree of misfortune. He is in an incredibly difficult position ahead of tomorrow’s Grand Prix.
His teammate Vettel knows it is out of his hands but the 23 year old German remains just as focused as ever. He clinched his record-equalling 10th pole of the season by just a few hundredths of a second from Hamilton. The general consensus amongst the F1 fraternity is that Vettel should have clinched this championship long ago. But the fact is he is third, fifteen points off Alonso, and will need results to go in his favour if he is to become the youngest ever World Champion. As for Hamilton, he certainly isn’t giving up on a second world title. He was on pole here last year and he somehow, almost superhumanly manage to drag his Mclaren onto the front row of the grid and in second place. It was a phenomenal effort from the 2008 World Champion and is certainly looking to drive in an aggressive manner come tomorrow. Yes, it is unlikely he will be crowned World Champion tomorrow, but winning is all he can do if he is to retain the slightest of possibilities of overhauling Alonso. We are in for a magnificent spectacle come tomorrow’s race and although Alonso is now in prime position to leave Abu Dhabi as the champion, the title battle still remains as unclear as ever.
So that is the qualifying round up out of the way, now for my preview and predictions for tomorrow’s race. It is fitting that the 2010 championship began in the desert and it will conclude there tomorrow. All four contenders, in my view, would deserve this championship. Alonso has shown the most resilience, Webber has been the most consistent, Vettel has been the most dominant whilst Hamilton has looked faster than ever (more than in his first two years at Mclaren). With the Mclaren lacking in performance compared to the Red Bull and Alonso’s Ferrari (I mention Alonso because Massa has hardly been in contention all season) Hamilton has kept plugging away decent results earlier in the season have kept him in the hunt. Who knows where he might have been if he had picked up better results in Australia, Italy and Singapore. He would certainly be in a much better position to exploit his qualifying performance earlier. As a self confessed Hamilton fan, I would love to see him win it although for the purposes of this blog I shall remain as unbiased as possible (it is tough I must say).
The Red Bull policy of equality may be responsible for their own downfall (as touched upon in my review of the Brazilian Grand Prix last weekend). The slightly slower driver is in a better championship position than the slightly faster one. Webber was clearly crestfallen after the conclusion of qualifying knowing that he is now in a very difficult position. Her must, and I repeat must, get ahead of both Mclarens and Alonso as soon as possible if he is to win the championship. However, he has not looked on the pace all weekend and crucially nowhere near his team-mate Vettel. Webber was six tenths of Vettel in Q3, and only set the 13th fastest time in sector two. It also remains uncertain whether Webber’s cause will be aided thanks to the fractious relationship he has with his team-mate Vettel. As for as the German is concerned it isn’t over until it is over. He has looked the fastest driver over the course of the season but the most reliable, consistent and calm he has not (well not until Monza anyway). Korea was cruel on Vettel, but he was won two of the last three and starting from pole will give him the best opportunity of victory for tomorrow. He needs Alonso to finish no higher than fifth. This could happen, but come race day luck has rarely been on the German’s side. He is my tip for the win tomorrow.
And so we come to our last championship contender who is standing on the brink of history. If Alonso wins the title tomorrow, it would be thoroughly deserved. BBC show the championship calendar at the opening of their programme’s and looking at the second half of the season’s list of winners one name is a permanent fixture; Alonso. He famously said after Silverstone, when 47 points off the lead, he would win the championship. Nobody really believed him, except the man himself. Now we all do. He can simply cruise tomorrow and drive a steady race; providing Webber or anyone else does not jump him at the start. Alonso’s Q3 lap was astonishing. When the pressure was on the Spaniard delivered. It leapt him ahead of Button and Mark Webber and he will now start third and on the clean side of the grid. Was this the moment the pendulum finally swung the way of Ferrari? Maybe. Alonso has been in frightening form since the infamous German Grand Prix. A victory in the desert at the start of the season was significant but another win on F1’s return to the desert would be the most significant of all. He is now poised to wrap up the title.
I will round up my preview with perhaps an insight into what could unfold tomorrow. Yes, Josh is getting out his crystal ball. Here is one possible scenario that could wet your appetite for tomorrow’s race and where the title will go. It is lap 55. Vettel has lead the whole race while Webber has clawed his way up to second with Alonso settling for third position knowing the championship is within is grasp. Vettel lifts off in an incredibly magnanimous gesture to allowe Webber to win the championship in a superb act of team play. But what’s this? Is that smoke coming from the back of the Ferrari? Yes… It’s Alonso! How dramatic would that be; Vettel will have gone from zero to hero because in allowing Webber to win the title he has thrown away his own chance of glory. Could it happen? In this 2010 season, anything can.
Abu Dhabi Gp - Qualifying
1. Vettel (Red Bull) 1m39.394s
2. Hamilton (Mclaren) 1m39.425s
3. Alonso (Ferrari) 1m39.792s
4. Button (Mclaren) 1m39.823s
5. Webber (Red Bull) 1m39.925s
6. Massa (Ferrari) 1m40.202s
7. Barrichello (Williams) 1m40.203s
8. Schumacher (Mercedes) 1m40.516s
9. Rosberg (Mercedes) 1m40.589s
10. Petrov (Renault) 1m40.901s
11. Kubica (Renault) 1m40.780s
12. Kobayashi (Sauber) 1m40.783s
13. Sutil (Force India) 1m40.914s
14. Heidfeld (Sauber) 1m41.113s
15. Hulkenberg (Williams) 1m41.418s
16. Liuzzi (Force India) 1m41.642s
17. Alguersuari (Toro Rosso) 1m41.738s
18. Buemi (Toro Rosso) 1m41.824s
19. Trulli (Lotus) 1m43.516s
20. Kovalainen (Lotus) 1m43.712s
21. Glock (Virgin) 1m44.095s
22. di Grassi (Virgin) 1m44.510s
23. Senna (Hispania) 1m45.085s
24. Klien (Hispania) 1m45.296s
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