I read an article in F1 Racing recently. In short, it outlined how the Korean International Circuit looked with 100 days to go until its inaugural Grand Prix. It was a bit behind schedule to say the least and in truth it still is. With dazzling settings such as Monaco, Singapore and Abu Dhabi on the calendar you could be forgiven for thinking Formula One is all glitz and glamour. Korea disproves this notion quite abruptly. The location has left many puzzled; it is 230 miles away from the country’s capital Seoul, which is where many travelling fans will arrive leaving them with a further exhausting journey south. The nearest city is Mokpo, merely adding to the feeling of apprehension due to its infamous organised crime. In addition, construction work around the race track is still ongoing while the accommodation for team personnel and media has been quite appalling (it was enough to prompt Chung Yung-cho, the CEO of the circuit organisers to issue an apology). The situation is similarly chaotic on track. The final layer of tarmac was laid just two weeks ago, three days prior to an official FIA inspection (which they passed) ensuring the drivers will have no indication whatsoever about how much grip they will have and, unusually for a Tilke-designed circuit, there is limited run off areas leaving the drivers no room for error. However, it has to be said that the air of unpredictable surrounding this weekend is in fact a good thing;
a new track + tense title battle (should) = a thrilling Grand Prix.
This weekend is crunch time for the five title protagonists. Bernie Ecclestone recognised as such in the pre-race build up; the five in contention for the 2010 Championship were photographed re-creating the famous image from the 1986 Championship, where Ayrton Senna, Alain Prost, Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet were photographed together in the latter stages of the championship when all were still in with a shout (Piquet was the victor, for all of you interested). Nevertheless by Sunday evening, we could be down to just three who have a realistic chance of becoming World Champion. Those currently in the danger zone right now are the two Mclarens of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button. If either driver leaves Korea 50 points or more behind Mark Webber then they are out of it. Yes, shock horror – Britain may not have a F1 World Champion for the first time in three years. Hamilton has been extremely positive (when isn’t he?) upon his arrival in Korea and believes the nature of the circuit "should suit our car quite well". For the sake of his title prospects, he had better be right. Is it over mathematically if Hamilton and Button do not win? No. Is it over realistically if Hamilton and Button do not win? Yes. A woeful two months have left Mclaren as the hunters rather than the hunted. After Spa, Hamilton led Webber by three points in the Championship with just six races to go while Button was 4th, 35 points behind but crucially ahead of Fernando Alonso in the improving Ferrari. Three races later the scenario is this; Hamilton is 28 points adrift of Webberwith a maximum of 75 points available from the last three races. Webber, meanwhile, still leads, with Alonso and Sebastian Vettel level just 14 points behind him. Button is now at the back of the chasing pack, 31 points off the Australian. Who would have predicted that?
The layout of the Korean circuit should even things out nicely amongst Mclaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. Korea will undeniably suit the McLaren more than in Suzuka, where race winner Vettel even prompted suggestions that the Japanese circuit could have been designed for the Red Bull team such was their overwhelming dominance. The first sector of the circuit, which includes a 1.2km straight, should give Button and Hamilton plenty to look forward to. However the latter part of the circuit does present a succession of low to medium speed corners which could swing the pendulum back in Webber and Vettel’s favour. As for Alonso, in theory the layout of the circuit could provide the Ferrari team with plenty of headaches nevertheless the F10 is a solid all-rounder and is arguably only inferior to the Red Bull’s in terms of outright speed. In Alonso, Ferrari also have a driver who he is says is in the form of his life: “It has been the best year of my career so far, a great experience and I'm very happy” before adding “In terms of happiness, motivation, driving, the team itself, it's my best season... it would be nice to become champion this year, but if we cannot do it, I will still have great memories of 2010”. He will also have a determined Felipe Massa fighting alongside him. Massa has been clearly outpaced by his new team mate this season and has vowed to aid Alonso in away to secure a first drivers championship for Ferrari since 2007. He will be extremely motivated to prove to the prancing horse that they can rely on him.
I still feel though, just like at Suzuka, Red Bull will be the team to beat. Mark Webber is slowly but surely being caught by Alonso and team-mate Vettel and needs to arrest their inroads into his championship lead. Despite a slow start, his explosive summer of results entwined with a growing consistency and focus has ensured he merits leading the standings with three races left. Not bad for a number two driver, eh? He has vowed to drive flat out this weekend and knows a win will edge him ever closer to that elusive first world title. No other driver would deserve it more. No other driver, except the guy in the opposite garage, Sebastian Vettel. Vettel’s 2010 season has been quite a conundrum. I recently read an article (http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/hes-14-points-behind-but-vettel-should-be-leading-the-championship-by-59/) about the ‘what if’ championship, outlining how the table would look had such and such not occurred or these two hadn’t crashed (you get the picture). Here are the results;
1. Sebastian Vettel – 297 pts (Actual position = 3rd with 206 pts)
2. Lewis Hamilton – 238 pts (Actual position = 4th with 192 pts)
3. Mark Webber – 231 pts (Actual position = 1st with 220 pts)
4. Fernando Alonso – 227 pts (Actual position = 2nd with 206 pts)
5. Jenson Button – 175 pts (Actual position = 5th with 189 pts)
Incredibly Vettel has lost a whopping 48 points through car failure (35 in the first two races) and a further 43 through driver error. Somehow he has emerged 14 points behind Webber when in fact he ‘could have’ been 59 ahead and within reach of clinching his first world title. However, I believe the German is currently the man with all the momentum (his 4th place in Italy, ahead of Webber, was in my view the catalyst for his upturn in form). At the tender age of 23 he will be involved in plenty of other title battles in the future while at 34 it is as yet unclear whether Webber will be. Vettel has the advantage and nothing to lose – he’s taken 14 points off Webber in the last three races and if he does the same in the next three he may well win the title after all. How about that?
As the Championship reaches its climax, any mistake in the next three races will undoubtedly be viewed as the ‘moment the championship was lost’. The undeniable truth however is that titles are won and lost over 19 races. Retiring from the lead of a race or colliding with a rival is as much a disaster in Round 1 as it is in Round 19. In just four hours, a Grand Prix car will officially turn a wheel around the Korean International Circuit for the first time. By Sunday evening, one of the five title challengers may have been in contention for the 2010 Championship for the last time.
Bell's predicted Top Three:
1. Lewis Hamilton (Mclaren)
2. Mark Webber (Red Bull)
3. Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
One to Watch:
Robert Kubica (Renault)
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