With the first Grand Prix of the season now officially underway, I will conclude my 2011 season preview by analysing the title chances of the leading four teams from last season.
Mercedes: Mercedes must challenge for victories in 2011 if they are to remain amongst the leading pack. For a team with such historical prestige, three visits to podium courtesy of Nico Rosberg simply wasn’t good enough. Nor was the performance of his more illustrious team-mate Michael Schumacher; his best result was fourth and he finished the season a harrowing ninth in the standings. The W01’s lack of pace put paid to a championship challenge in 2010, but there will be no excuses ahead of the new season. Mercedes will be buoyed by the results from the final test in Barcelona, which indicated that they should challenge for wins in 2011.
Many anticipated that the returning Schumacher would blow young Rosberg away but he bucked the trend in 2010. Rosberg finished 2010 as undoubtedly the best of the rest behind Red Bull, Mclaren and Ferrari and claimed the lion share of Mercedes GP’s inaugural season. As I mentioned no more than a month ago, it is an outrage that Rosberg has yet to win a grand prix. I don’t want to tempt fate, but I expect that to change within the next eight months.
Speaking of finally claiming a win, I’m fully anticipating Schumacher to mix it for real in 2011. There were brief flashes of brilliance, such as Japan and Korea, but Schumacher appeared to be a driver in rapid decline last season. After three years away, even someone who has won seven world titles needs time to get back into the groove. Schumacher had a torrid time with the 2010 spec Bridgestone tyres that were ill-suited to his driving style. Yet 2011 brings a new car, which he has unquestionably had a significant impact on, and new tyres. The playing field has been levelled, so will ‘Schuey’ claw his way back to the front? One thing is for certain; Rosberg will not give him an inch.
Ferrari: At long last, Ferrari have finally found their successor to Michael Schumacher. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa were only a temporary measure; Fernando Alonso is the real deal. Just like 2008, Ferrari fell at the last hurdle in the championship chase and they will be determined to put the ghosts of Brazil and Abu Dhabi to bed once and for all. They have, arguably, the most complete driver on the grid and two-time world champion Alonso will be a force to be reckoned with at Ferrari (Team Alonso) this season. I say ‘Team Alonso’ because, unfortunately, I can only see Massa performing a supporting role in 2011. In truth, the definition of playing the supporting role really means backing up Alonso and not derail or obstruct his championship charge.
‘Derail’ and ‘obstruct’ are two very strong words yet if Massa finds himself in a similar situation to that of Hockenheim 2010, he will be doing precisely that. The harsh reality for Massa is that unlike Raikkonen, Alonso is faster than him and is Ferrari’s favoured son. After Monza in particular, it was clear Alonso was once again at the peak of his powers; his lights to flag, faultless drive in Singapore proved testament to that. Massa is going to have to recapture the same form and feistiness of late 2006-2009 if he is to match his team mate.
Massa, much like Mark Webber at Red Bull, if have to galvanise the team instantly force his way back into the team’s long term goals. As history has shown, Alonso is at his peak when his team mate is merely a back up guy, so Massa will have to get under the Spaniard’s skin. However, as much as I respect Massa and wish him well for 2011, Alonso will undoubtedly be Ferrari’s sole focus for the championship. The Ferrari F150th Italia has been a prominent figure throughout winter testing, and will be Red Bull’s biggest threat. With Alonso behind the wheel, we have a real title challenge.
Mclaren: I woke up this morning to this headline on the BBC website: “Mclaren fight back to the front”. I thought I was still dreaming, but no. I read a little further: “McLaren's Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton head Ferrari's Fernando Alonso in second practice at the Australian Grand Prix.” Where on earth had this come from? Mclaren lacked sufficient reliability and pace throughout winter testing despite their aggressive designs and now here they were, two days before the first race, sealing a one-two in Friday FP2. These times may seem irrelevant, but the fact Mclaren were in contention and reliable was a significant step forward for the team.
The MP4-26 is nowhere near as bad as the 2009 yet many sense a miraculous Mclaren comeback is now in the offing. They have retained their star driver line up for 2011, and Hamilton and Button will both be keen for a second world title. The predicted fireworks between them last season never arrived; in fact their partnership was seen as friendly and harmonious. Well, other than Turkey of course, when Button caught Hamilton completely unawares after Lewis was told he would not be passed. He put Jenson in his places on the run down to the first corner the next lap, but his face on the podium said it all. With a more competitive car, tensions may rise but for now many have been impressed by the maturity of both drivers.
Team Principal Martin Whitmarsh predicted that the upgrades prior to the Australian GP would deliver one second in performance: it appears he was spot on. The innovative designs of the MP4-26 have been unsuccessful so a simpler exhaust and floor design has been integrated providing a much needed boost to the cars performance. Lewis Hamilton won the opening round of the season in Melbourne in 2008 while Jenson Button has won the last two races at the Albert Park circuit. So can Britannia rule on the shores of Australia for the fourth year in a row?
Red Bull: Its been five years since the ‘fizzy drinks company’ arrived in F1 and last season they achieved what was perhaps inconceivable in 2005; they won both the drivers and constructors championships and were undoubtedly the class of the field. The Red Bull RB6, designed by the guru that is Adrian Newey, was peerless despite the weakness of having the low-powered Renault engine due to the homologation legislation. Newey has mastered the overhaul of the aerodynamic rules from the 2009 season better than anyone and has been the main reason for the team’s recent success. You could argue that the RB7 is actually an evolution of not just the 2010 car, but also the RB5 from 2009 which was handicapped by thee controversial double-diffuser ruling. How can Red Bull and the RB7 improve in 2011? Achieve the double again would appear the only solution.
Sebastian Vettel, despite his impetuosity and his lack of reliability, fully deserved the 2010 championship. The sport’s youngest ever champion won five races and took an astonishing ten poles and will be hungry for more in the future. I genuinely believe he could eclipse Michael Schumacher’s remarkable record of seven world titles. With the monkey off his back now that he was won a title, he will be far more relaxed in the upcoming seasons and a daunting prospect for the opposition.
In the opposite garage, Mark Webber will officially be the ‘No.2’ driver. However, whether that is because of the number on his car or this role within the Red Bull setup remains to be seen. The Australian must start this season, unlike the previous two, all guns blazing. Webber and Vettel were more or less parallel in qualifying although he hasn’t qualified in front of, or led, his team mate since Monza. Webber, once again, must up his game.
A key factor in whether or not Red Bull match last season’s achievements will be how they manage the inter-team fractions post Turkey. A line was definitely drawn in the middle of the garage and Red Bull know that a similar car advantage to last season, with both drivers contesting heavily for the title, could signal chaos within the team. They have kissed and made up, but how long will this truce last for? Only time will tell.
So, the question remains; will 2011 eclipse the spellbinding season of 2010? You better believe it.
Bell's title tip: Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
Bell's one to watch: Rubens Barrichello (Williams)
Josh.
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