Thursday, 5 May 2011

Turkish GP preview

Its official: it could rain at the Turkish Grand Prix this weekend. An unusual weather forecast for the fourth round of the season is fitting for what is promising to be the most unpredictable campaign in recent years. Moreover, Lewis Hamilton’s victory three weeks ago in China has reassured us all that there will be a title battle this year. Sebastian Vettel, and his Renault-powered rocketship we acknowledge as the Red Bull, appeared untouchable in the opening two rounds of the season. However Hamilton’s brilliance, and an intriguing strategic decision, saw Mclaren overhaul the team from Milton Keynes and launch themselves back in the hunt.

Last year’s race at Istanbul was one of the most exciting and dramatic of the season. The tension rose as the Red Bulls and Mclarens stormed away from the field, instigating a four car battle for victory. Their titanic squable thus provided us with one of the most fascinating moments of the season, as Vettel and teammate Mark Webber collided, handing Mclaren a one-two victory. I expect a similar battle for victory this weekend as although Nico Rosberg and Felipe Massa showed that there were signs of life at Mercedes and Ferrari respectively, in China, their cars are still undoubtedly some way off race winning pace. The three week break, whereby the teams focused on developing their cars, may alter the order in Formula One but not greatly. Upgrades are critical as you can never afford to stand still in F1; no one wants to be bringing up the rear. Hence why Hispania, despite bringing little in terms of new parts last year, have brought minor upgrades in a bid to enhance the performance of their F111.

However, the battle at the front remains the talking point for many, which is why the focus this weekend will be on whether Mercedes, Ferrari and particularly. Williams can get back in the action. It has been a tulmultous week for the Sir Frank's team as they undergo drastic changes, which saw technical director Sam Michael and chief aerodynamicist Jon Tomlinson have resign. Moreover, Mike Coughlan, a key figure in the 2007 ‘spygate’ scandal, will join the team next month as Chief Engineer. The reshuffle follows Williams’ worst ever start to a season, which dampens the spirits of even the most neutral of F1 fan. As Team Lotus Chief Technical Officer Mike Gascoyne said after being asked which teams he had on his radar Lotus: "Unfortunately, it's probably Williams.”

The Istanbul Park Circuit was introduced to the F1 calendar in 2005 and is one of my favourite races of the year. Recalling Hamilton’s tyre delamination in 2007 and his subsequent three-stop strategy the following year, the durability of the Pirelli tyre will be vital in Turkey. Remarkable, the fearsome quadruple-apexed turn eight accounts for 40% of the energy put through the tyres in a single lap. Many are predicting a similar three-stop race to the one we saw in Sepang, although Webber’s four-stop strategy in Shanghai, albeit forced upon him due to a poor qualifying session, means those on the pit wall may have to rethink their plans during the weekend.

If the order of F1 post-Shanghai is to be maintained, then Red Bull and Mclaren will be fighting tooth and nail for the win on Sunday. Can anybody catch them?

P.S. I will unable to do a qualifying report on Saturday, nor a race review on Sunday, as I am in Scunthorpe/Hull this weekend (glamorous, right?).

Josh.

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