Brazil is the place where all F1 titles are decided these days. In 2005 and 2006, Fernando Alonso won back to back championships for Renault, becoming the youngest ever double world champion in the process. In 2007 Kimi Raikkonen and Ferrari capitalised on the inter team wars at Mclaren to win the title by a single point, after being seventeen points behind which just to races left. That same margin decided the 2008 championship in what was possibly the most dramatic finale of them all; Lewis Hamilton snatched back the lead in the championship on the final corner n the final lap of the final race. Not even Hollywood would except that as a script. Yet this is Formula One, and as Hamilton will no doubt testify, anything can happen. And finally on F1’s last visit to the Interlagos racetrack, Jenson Button crowned Brawn’s fairytale story by winning his first world title. So will the title, like the past five years, be decided in Brazil once again?
It won’t be. One of the most thrilling and exciting championships of all time will continue until the last lap of the last race in Abu Dhabi next week. Five drivers remain in contention although for Button you could argue his title change is all but over; he is 42 points off Alonso with just 50 to play for. It is do or die for the reigning champion and from now on he may have to play a supporting act to aid Hamilton’s title bid. He will seek added impetus from winning his World Title in Brazil last season for Brawn. Surely that would be a miracle too far for a man who hasn’t won since China back in April. However, Hamilton too may find himself out of the running after tomorrow’s race. He lies third, 21 points behind former team mate Alonso who is most definitely the man in form; he has won three of the last four races and four of the last seven. It will definitely be a difficult task. The fact remains that for large parts of the season the Mclarens have had the third fastest car.
The Red Bull’s are once again favourites and indisputably so. Either Vettel or Webber has qualified on pole at 14 of the 17 races so far and one must expect that to continue in today’s qualifying session despite the red juggernaut which is Fernando Alonso. Both cars will be easily the strongest cars through Interlagos's slow and twisty infield section, which suits the RB6 perfectly. If I had to choose which Red Bull will have the upper hand this weekend, I wouldn’t be able to. It is too close to cll. Since Monza, Vettel has had the outright pace advantage over his team-mate and over the rest of the field since Singapore so that should continue for the final two races. But, as he has proved all year, Webber is a much tougher customer than many have anticipated and he will be looking for successive wins in Interlagos after triumphing last year. Vettel has to pull back at 25 point deficit to Alonso and with consistency lacking in the German’s attributes so far, it may be a bridge too far for him. He has only converted two of his nine pole positions into victory in 2010 and has lost significant points no less than eight times through both driver error and car problems. Even if Vettel wins in Brazil and Abu Dhabi, Alonso would still only require a third and a fourth place finish to be champion. It looks just slightly too much. Webber has a much better mathematical chance of catching Alonso, but since his last victory in Hungary way back in August his momentum seems to have slowed slightly. But after both cars dominated yesterday’s practise session, they will both be hoping to get back on track with just two rounds to go.
So then, that leaves one of the title contenders to discuss. Alonso is the only man that can seal the championship, which would be his third, this weekend. Here are the permutations:
• If he wins in Brazil, Webber must finish fourth or higher to keep the championship alive. Everyone else would be out of contention, regardless of where they finish.
• If Alonso is second, Webber must be higher than eighth to stay in it, Hamilton higher than fourth and Vettel must win.
• If Alonso is third, Webber must score points, Hamilton must be in the top four and Vettel in the top three.
• If Alonso finishes lower than third, the championship will stay open to the last race because Webber, at least, will still be able to win regardless of where he finishes.
The Ferrari is particularly strong under braking and has superb traction, something which will serve them well in Brazil. But the most crucial aspect of Alonso’s title challenge is the driver himself. The most consistent out of the five, Alonso is the one man they all did not want heading the standings with just two races left. He will be tough to overhaul. The other four drivers will be praying for Alonso to suffer a similar race to last season; he was taken out through no fault of his own by Force India’s Adrian Sutil after the German had collided with the Toyota of Jarno Trulli. A no score for Alonso would throw everything up in the air.
Speaking of everything being thrown up in the air, rain appears on the horizon for today’s qualifying session in the race. Red Bull’s pace advantage if that was the case would surely go out of the window. The rain may play a massive role in deciding the outcome of the race, as may the backmarkers of Lotus, Virgin and Hispania. The Interlagos rack is the second-shortest on the calendar and traffic will be a huge concern for the leaders. Remember the dramatic 2008 race; Kubica un-lapped himself from Hamilton which produced an unbelievable chain of events for the Englishman. He was passed by Vettel’s Toro Rosso and only sealed the title by passing Timo Glock’s Toyota on the final corner. It could be just as chaotic this weekend and Interlagos may produce another spectacular race which could define the 2010 championship.
Bell's predicted Top Three:
1. Mark Webber (Red Bull)
2. Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
3. Robert Kubica (Renault)
One to Watch:
Nick Heidfeld (Sauber)
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