The Australian Grand Prix two weeks ago gave us few answers as to how the 2011 season will pan out. This weekend at Sepang should reveal a whole lot more. The race in Melbourne indicated just how quick the Red Bulls are. Well, Sebastian Vettel anyway. The World Champion qualified almost eight tenths faster than Mclaren's Lewis Hamilton and appeared to be in cruise mode throughout the race, such was the performance advantage of the Red Bull RB7. Vettel's win undoubtedly begs the question: after building up a gap of three seconds on lap 2, was he simply consolidating that lead until the finish? Only Vettel can answer that, but ostensibly it seems that Red Bull have something in hand. Mclaren are clearly best of the rest after showing rapid gains from what was an underwhelming winter for the team, while Ferrari and Mercedes have plenty of work to do. It was also evident that Sauber are the most gentle on their tyres, which could yet prove to be invaluable in the early parts of the season as the teams attempt to get to grips with so many rule changes.
When looking at the Sepang Circuit, most spectators merely appreciate its two long straights. However, for one-third of the lap the drivers are not on the throttle pedal. This means that the drivers are braking and, or cornering, which significantly plays into Red Bull's hands. Much like last season, the RB7 is ultra quick through the fast and medium speed corners and the Malaysian circuit certainly provides plenty of those. The left hander at Turn 5 followed immediately by the blind right hander Turn 6 is simply mesmerising while the next two corners, Turns 7 and 8, are extremely reminiscent of the Degner Curve at Suzuka, albeit on a smaller scale. This crucial part of the lap should signal a significant performance advantage for Vettel and his team mate Mark Webber. I fully expect the Red Bulls to reign supreme this weekend but the continual constraint of the Adrian Newey designed Red Bulls is their lack of straight line speed. This could conspire against them on race day.
For example, RB7s were only ninth-quickest of 12 cars through the speed trap in Melbourne during qualifying. This wasn't so much of a hinderance in Australia due to their superior car, but Sepang has two very long straights, the largest of which is just over a kilometre long. Today the FIA confirmed the zone where the Drag Reduction Systems (adjustable rear wings) can be activated by the drivers. The drivers can activate their DRS coming out of the final corner onto the one kilometre pit straight and this will give the clearest indication yet over whether the DRS can be a success in 2011. However, going back to Red Bull, they may be particularly vulnerable to an attack given their lack of KERS. They didn't use KERS in Melbourne as they were unsure of its reliability yet it wasn't too much of a problem for the team. On a more high speed circuit it is critical, particularly at the start, although rumours have been circulating that Red Bull are using a start only system. Hamilton's poor getaway in Melbourne meant Vettel was unchallenged off the start line but I don't think I was alone in feeling he would be exposed into Turn 1. With a longer run into the first corner this weekend, the Red Bulls will have to defend their positions fiercely from their KERS-shod rivals.
The main question after Melbourne was whether anyone can catch Red Bull, or more specfically, Vettel? His main challenger this season may not be Ferrari's Fernando Alonso after and Hamilton's performance in a far inferior Mclaren should have given Vettel food for thought post-Australia. Moreover, he will be under attack from Hamilton's team mate Jenson Button, who endured endless amounts of bad luck on a circuit which has been kind to him in recent years. I expect Webber to be right on the pace this weekend too. He was humiliated by Vettel at his home race two weeks ago and it was so uncharacteristic from the Australian. Webber was indisputably too hard on his Pirellis and must not repeat this at Sepang.
Elsewhere, Mercedes will be keen to bounce back from their terrible start to the season and I think Rosberg and Schumacher will overhaul Vitaly Petrov's Renault at the very least. Both Mercedes and Ferrari failed to replicate their pre-season form and at a more conventional circuit I believe both teams will show their true pace. What was more worrying perhaps for both teams was the fact they were comprehensively outshone by Sauber. Despite their disqualifications, the C30 that was kindest to its tyres in Melbourne, as proved by debutant Sergio Perez. The Mexican was the only driver who made it through the race with just one change of tyres while the Sauber was also the quickest through the speed traps in Melbourne which bodes well for this weekend.
The new rules for 2011 also included the return of the 107% rule, which came into effect as early as the opening race. Hispania's Vitantonio Liuzzi and Narain Karthikeyan became the first drivers for almost a decade not to qualify. The team only managed 29 laps in Melbourne and Liuzzi was 1.7 seconds outside of the cut off point. I expect a similar result this weekend despite the defiance from HRT. The cars did not appear to have a fitted DRS system in Melbourne and if they can implement it to the F111 for Sepang, along with a new front wing, they should be more competitive. They are not the only team struggling for pace, though. Virgin were lucky to get both cars into the race in Australia and there have been whispers that if HRT can fit their revised front wing, they will push Virgin to the bottom of the pile. All four cars may find themselves unable to race on Sunday due to their lack of pace and somebody as talented as Virgin driver Timo Glock does not deserve such a fate.
The pre-race fears over the Pirelli tyres did not come to fruition in Australia although Pirelli have predicted that some cars may even have to stop four times: that is a pit stop every 11 laps. Nevertheless, some teams may be able to get away with lesser entries into the pit lane (such as the Sauber team) so we should see an intriguing mixture of strategies this weekend. Pirelli has also added a gold stripe to the side of the soft tyres for this weekends race; the Italian tyre company were littered with complaints in Australia that it was difficult to see the silver and yellow colours used for the hard and soft tyres, therefore alterations have been made as a temporary solution. Furthermore, rain could be a important aspect of the weekend. The changeable weather conditions caught out Mclaren and Ferrari heavily last year and when using the wet tyres provided by Pirelli, drivers have complained over high tyre wear. Whatever the weather, this weekend's race should provide plenty more answers for all of us.
Josh.
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