There is no doubt that Suzuka is a special race track. Since its introduction in 1987, the Japanese circuit has become synonymous with some of the most dramatic moments in Formula One's sixty year history. Think back to the controversial clashes between Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost which decided the 1989 and 1990 World Championships, Damon Hill’s dramatic victories in 1994 and 1996 or the fantastic duels between Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher. In more recent times, Michael Schumacher capturing his record breaking sixth world title in 2003 and of course the unforgettable 2005 Grand Prix in which Kimi Raikkonen came through from 17th on the grid to pass Giancarlo Fisichella on the last lap to win. It has provided us with some truly iconic images.
Suzuka pushes the car and driver to the limit, particularly in the sweeping corners during the first sector as the cars charge their way up towards the Dunlop Curve. It is a firm favourite amongst the current crop of drivers; Tonio Liuzzi recently described Suzuka as "old-school" and "a real man's circuit" while Robert Kubica considers it his favourite track. In its 21 years on the Formula One calendar, Suzuka has been the scene of nine title deciders, a role which is seemingly now being undertaken in Sao Paolo at Interlagos. It's impossible for any of the top five drivers to secure the championship this weekend, however it is clear that a DNF could leave their championship chances in serious jeopardy.
On paper. How many times have we said that this season? 'On paper' Mclaren should dominate at Monza - Ferrari won. 'On paper' Red Bull would cruise to victory in Turkey - well, we all know what happened there. And more recently of course was the Singapore Grand Prix, and the seemingly unstoppable Sebastian Vettel rocket ship. 'On paper', he would storm to victory, right? Ferrari, well more significantly, Fernando Alonso usurped him. The 2010 season has been far from predictable and that should continue in Japan this weekend. With just four races to go, it is now Fernando Alonso who has the momentum rather than Red Bull or Mclaren. Who would have predicted that after Silverstone? This weekend, the F1 fraternity appears to be in a rather similar position. And by similar, I mean predicting which Red Bull driver will be on pole after qualifying.
However, is that likely? As previously mentioned the first sector is filled with fast, sweeping medium to high-speed corners which should, in theory, suit Vettel and Mark Webber. However, the rest of the lap offers plenty of rest bite to the chasing pack of Alonso, Button and Hamilton. Hamilton in particular has been most keen in determining this weekend's race as do or die. He enters Suzuka badly needing to stop the rot in his championship effort after three DNFs in four races. However, with the latter part of the circuit being notoriously high-speed, the 2008 World Champion should be able to use his F-Duct to good effect, as he did so memorably at Spa almost six weeks ago.
His team mate Jenson Button has retained a calm demeanour throughout the season and despite believing there are several more twists and turns yet in the season, remains quietly convinced he is more than capable of taking victory this weekend. "I think it's a circuit that suits my style - it's all about scrubbing off as little speed as possible through the corners and maintaining a very smooth and precise rhythm: get it wrong and you're usually scrabbling to regain your momentum for several more corners. It's a punishing place." If McLaren can’t keep their rivals in sight here it could prove the beginning of the end to their championship hopes.
Fernando Alonso continues to fly the Ferrari flag and is now in the driving seat to take the lead of the championship for the first time since Bahrain. He could also become the first driver to win three races in a row this season. And to think they may have given up on this year's championship if they didn't secure a good result at Hockenheim (and we all know what happened there). The F10 is a solid all-rounder and Alonso has driven very well here in years gone by, winning in 2006 and rising from 16th to third in 2005.
However, my tip for this weekend is Red Bull. Expect them to blitz qualifying, as has often been the case this season, but not with as big a margin as we saw in Hungary (Fernando Alonso qualified third, 1.2 seconds slower than Vettel). So which Red Bull driver will come out on top? Vettel. I found myself smiling at his chirpy anecdote on the radio following the Singapore Grand Prix two weeks ago, where he finished second. "Don't you worry, we will get there" he said. And I for one believed him. Dominant from pole last year on his first visit to Suzuka as a Grand Prix driver, expect a similar performance one year on.
Over one lap he is still quicker than Mark Webber and as long as he makes it through the first corner unscathed he should be in the best position to win the race. However, I believe that Webber will still retain his slender lead in the drivers standings thanks largely due to his knack of grinding out a good haul of points which will continue this weekend. Suzuka is a track that has a habit of throwing up surprises. Its difficult layout and limited run-off areas caught out many drivers last year and can be extremely daunting. However, those that attack it earn the much greater rewards. Once again rain has been forecast for a 2010 Grand Prix. Expect Japan to produce yet another thrilling spectacle as the most exciting title fight in years draws ever closer to its conclusion.
Bell's predicted top three:
1. Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2. Lewis Hamilton (Mclaren)
3. Mark Webber (Red Bull)
One to Watch:
Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)
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